What will future mobile devices look like?

Most people want the large portable device-a notebook—with a big screen and keyboard that they can use for complex content creation and extended work periods. But they also want the small and light mobile device in order to stay connected while on the go. This device needs some kind of a keyboard and must be small enough for the pocket, belt or purse. It also needs at least two days of battery life. The small device will gain the performance, storage and bandwidth of the larger device to the degree that it can stay small and power efficient.

The middle-sized device fails to fulfill both needs well. It will succeed in niche markets, such as warehousing or perhaps mobile TV, but it won't see wide adoption by highly mobile knowledge workers.

When we look into our "crystal ball," we see a future where technology is more about the individual—not about fitting applications to the existing technology in a device, or even to the device itself—and about how the technology can enable a more user-centric and stimulating experience. Mobile devices will intuitively adapt to a person's unique interests and recognize the user's environment, location, culture and preferred means of communication.

The user interface will become more "human" and less "machine." You'll see less button-pushing. For instance, a mobile phone will sense that your car is low on gas and not only finds the nearest gas station with the lowest price per gallon, but also provides directions instantaneously.

Will the laptop fade away, or will they and handhelds remain complements?

They will continue to complement each other. Highly mobile workers will continue to need both to varying degrees, depending on their need to create and view complex content or work for extended periods in one place with a laptop.

The two major form factors will continue to influence each other, and new attributes of one will emerge in the other. A great example of this is how cellular connectivity is being added to notebooks and wireless LAN connectivity is being added to handhelds. However, the fundamentally different purposes of each will not change, and the "middle-sized" device will remain a niche device for some time to come.