As for blame, it is evenly spread. SAP implementations are no more likely to go down the tubes than ERP systems from other vendors: W.L. Gore's system, for example, came from Pleasanton, Calif.-based PeopleSoft. "When an ERP project unravels, or is seen not to perform well, one of the suppliers is usually chosen as the culprit," says David Duray, London-based global partner responsible for the SAP implementation business at PricewaterhouseCoopers. "In my experience, this is usually more of a political decision than a proper problem-source identification exercise—and SAP, over the last few years, has been a popular target."

Furthermore, adds Roger Phillips, an IT analyst at specialist investment bank Granville in London, which tracks the global ERP market, there is no evidence that geography is a significant differentiator in the success stakes. Disasters, he believes, "simply go with the ERP territory." There are, he says, "no cultural or managerial foibles that make American ERP implementations any more predisposed to disasters than any other country's implementations."

So what does lie behind ERP disasters? And behind the rather longer list of costly-but-underwhelming implementations typified by that now-infamous Meta Group report? Increasingly, experts reckon that they've found the smoking gun: poor training. Not the technical training of the core team of people who are installing the software, but the education of the broad user community of managers and employees who are supposed to actually run the business with it.

So Much Training, So Little Benefit
As few as 10 percent to 15 percent of ERP implementations have a smooth introduction that delivers the anticipated benefits, says A. Blanton Godfrey, chairman and CEO of the Juran Institute, a Wilton, Conn.-based consultancy. The remainder either experience teething problems or a significant shortfall in delivered benefits—with a full 30 percent of companies receiving what he calls "a nasty surprise." It's not a disaster of Hershey or Whirlpool dimensions, but it's still a kick in the teeth. The fascinating variable to look at, according to Godfrey, is what characterizes the lucky 10 percent to 15 percent. It's not luck; it's better training.

In one sense, this isn't new. Everyone knows that training is important. Especially the ERP software vendors themselves, who earn handy revenues from design-once, recycle-many-times training courses. And most especially third-party training vendors, the bulk of whose livelihoods come from running courses on how to operate an ERP vendor's system. And just look at the mind-blowing variety of training formats available: web-based virtual classrooms, computer-based training, knowledge warehouses, video courses, self-study books, pop-up help screens... an almost endless menu to suit almost every need and budget.