"The cinematic user experience" isn't specific to video. According to David Temkin, Laszlo Systems CTO, "Cinematography involves motion, and that tells the story." Applications will have a lot of animation, a lot of continuity. The result: another period of disruption. "The entire user interface is up for grabs," Temkin says. If we could fast-forward a couple of years, he believes, we'll see some consolidation and another stability point.

Bob Brewin, Sun's software CTO, believes that software development has to go beyond what we can get with Ajax. "Start thinking about how we can become more tightly integrated with the desktop, not just the apps on your desktop," he advises.

More Social Interaction and Customization

But another key, upcoming change isn't in the technology of building software, but "encouraging a culture of contribution," says Tim Bray, director of Web technologies at Sun Microsystems.

Traditionally, information—particularly corporate information—has flowed in from the edges, with central control. "Those days are gone," Bray says. "People are saying, 'There's a culture of wikis, blogs, tagging and community knowledge—and why can't our enterprise apps be more like that?'" It's especially valuable in information-intensive apps, he believes. "This is coming faster than people think," says Bray.

Collaboration and information sharing needs to be addressed in the application planning phase—and developers should probably start thinking about it now. "Do something that encourages community development," Bray advises.

The rise of social networks and information sharing will likely also change the development process itself. In the next couple of years, says David Intersimone, CodeGear vice president, the Internet will improve the ability of individuals and small teams to work together, in coffee shops and homes, and build new apps in new ways. That movement is arguably already under way, with team members regularly working in different geographies, but Intersimone expects more to come. "The whole social level means more people can collaborate. That's this next wave: how we collaborate over the developer network and put collaboration into our products." Perhaps, he muses, some new languages and object models will come out of this change as well.

For more on collaborative software development, see Grady Booch's "10 Tips to Help Employees Collaborate."

Sun's Brewin believes that social interaction is "no longer a nice-to-have" feature, and expects it to be integrated fully into new applications using asynchronous, annotating documents or data feeds.

Today, synchronous data is fed to us primarily by instant messaging, but over time, says Brewin, our input will include audio and video feeds. There will be live event dispatching, with people working together, such as sharing a single document or application in real time. "It's easy to think of it in text, but imagine two traders working on a trader desktop, deciding whether to buy a billion-dollar stock," he suggests.

Rethink that concept of documents, while you're at it. Brewin expects distinctions between documents and applications to blur. "They'll become more interactive and more dynamic," he says; for example, users won't see as many unnecessary data input fields.