That's the question enterprise IT leaders struggle with right now, as VMware and a slew of rivals talk up desktop virtualization and a host of other "thin client" options as smart replacements for today's desktop PCs—which still cost too much to manage, secure and maintain.

Today, Intel launched a fresh salvo in the debate, releasing results of a fourth quarter 2007 survey of 705 IT decision makers at medium and large U.S. businesses, declaring a "dead heat" in the race among emerging models for desktop computing.

Those models start with desktop PC virtualization, "VDI" as VMware calls it, or "virtual hosted desktop," as Intel calls it. In this model, a user's whole desktop PC image lives not on the local PC, but in the backroom on a server.

The main drivers for IT to want to move to this or other "thin" client models include greater centralization of IT administrative chores in a time of lean staffing, disaster recovery, security and compliance concerns, and lower cost of ownership. Nobody's saying mobile devices are going away. But make no mistake, desktop computing will morph, analysts say.

"The enterprise client device is up for grabs," says Forrester Research senior analyst Natalie Lambert.

What are the other main options, in addition to VMware's vision? Traditional "terminal services" computing (as in Wyse terminals;) application streaming (where the client PC has a host OS but streams applications from a server); OS streaming (where the whole client environment streams on demand from a server); and blade computing (where identical clients plug into racks.)

Virtualization's Reach Now

Intel's survey took a picture of where IT opinion stands on these flavors of desktop computing, at the moment. The lowdown: "There's no clear winner," says Mike Ferron-Jones, Manager of Intel's Emerging Model program, who presented the survey to reporters today.

According to Intel's survey, 39 percent of the enterprises have a current deployment of desktop virtualization; 84 percent are using terminal services; 30 percent have currently deployed application streaming, 26 percent are using blade PCs and 15 percent are using OS streaming. But enterprises doing "broad deployments" of all those options are in the single digits (other than terminal services, which is an old technology).

What should IT leaders make of these figures? First, a bit of context: If you're thinking this discussion sounds somewhat like "back to the future," you're right. Thin clients, which put the computing burden on servers not clients, have been around for decades. But today's virtualization technology is helping VMware offer a new take on thin desktop computing, one that could pose more of a threat to Intel and Microsoft than Wyse ever did. Understandably, Intel can't like a future picture of desktop computing that doesn’t require much CPU power at most user desktops. VMware has no such problem.