Ellis contends the Republicans’ head start and their cumulative investment in data quality over nearly a decade will make the difference for Republican candidates this fall.

Democrats Play Catch-Up

The Democrats beg to differ. After Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the 2000 election, the DNC’s postelection competitive analysis identified the lack of an integrated voter database as one of the major operational differences between the two parties, according to QRS Newmedia’s Quinn. By 2002, the party had invested $3 million dollars in a new IT infrastructure with the national voter database (the DataMart) at its core. In its operation, the DataMart is similar to the GOP’s voter file: It’s a relational database that links voter registration and turnout records with census information and whatever other data the party can collect. The state parties provide their data (largely from local election records) to the DNC using a set of XML standards for data exchange. The DNC outsources the data cleanup, then makes it available to the state parties, who in turn allow password-protected access to campaign operatives for state, local and congressional candidates.

One shortcoming of the Democratic effort so far is the lack of online tools (such as the Republicans have) that allow party operatives in every state to more easily segment voter data. However, by accessing a secure DNC website, such tools are available to DNC campaigners and Kerry’s field workers?putting the Kerry campaign at technological par with Bush. But 14 states still keep their data on a server that isn’t connected to the Internet, which could make a difference for other Democrats on the ballot.

The biggest benefit for the Democrats is that for the first time, the national and state parties are working from the same data, says Moskowitz. She contends the Democrats can compete even if they don’t all have access to the latest tools. Most major campaigns, and the state parties, have people on staff with experience using databases, she says, and these operatives don’t need the user-friendly interfaces. But she concedes the importance of accessibility. "If you make [the data] more accessible, it’s more likely people will use it," she says, including volunteers in the field who aren’t expert data analysts.

The 2004 Race

The key to winning the presidency this year, predicts Moskowitz, will be how effectively the major parties and their candidates conduct niche marketing campaigns. "It’s going to be mobilization of lots of small universes," she says. "This set of Hispanic voters in New Mexico, and that set of African-American voters in Michigan and nonmarried women in Pennsylvania. That is going to equal mass mobilization."