IT Relief Will Lag Economic Recovery

Computerworld — Whether or not an economic recovery has begun, I suspect that this will be another tough year for those of us in IT. Take a deep breath and get ready for it. I'm not trying to quash the small signs of budding optimism, but I can't help feeling that excessive confidence may threaten us personally and collectively. I think a bit of cautious realism is called for.

Economic Recovery: Will Your IT Security Department Leave?

In my experience, IT budgets don't begin to rise until at least a year after an economic recovery begins in earnest . This seems to be due to both emotional and logistical issues. Logistically, budgeting changes take time. Typically, the larger the organization, the slower the budgeting wheels grind. Nimble is not a word that comes to mind when thinking about financial controls. But this is more than just a mechanical problem. Emotionally, business leaders tend to have mood swings like everyone else. They become excessively optimistic and pessimistic, swinging wildly from one to the other. During the optimistic periods, they overspend on (excuse me, invest in ) IT. During the pessimistic ones, they starve every operational area until it barely functions. It's easy to remind executives that one can't scrimp a business into profitability, but no one seems to pay much attention. When bonuses are based on quarterly numbers, the urge to cut expenses is tough to resist.

So, despite the fact that many companies are now reporting profits, it seems to me that we're in for at least another year of tough times.

For those who lost their jobs , it could be another slow year for trying to find work. For those just entering the workforce from school, it could be especially difficult, as risk-averse managers bring in only people with specific experience and expertise. Trying to figure out what training to get or skills to acquire will be hard. It's going to be difficult to stand out. Also, despite the fact that a lot of talented people have been unemployed for long periods of time, I expect that hiring will be biased toward those who are currently working. The unspoken, and often faulty, assumption is that people with jobs must be more talented than those without.

On the positive side for those without jobs, opportunities for contracting may become more plentiful. As employers start to work on more things, they will hit the limits of what their remaining staffers can do. Instead of hiring new employees, they are likely to look for contractors. Once an employer likes you as a contractor, it is more likely to hire you as an employee.

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