Windows 8: Assessing IT Risks of a Consumer-Driven Wave

CIO — There isn't a great deal of demand for Windows 8 at the moment, but then, this early in the cycle, new versions of Windows rarely garner much enthusiasm.

Among IT observers, there is a running pool as to when Windows 8 will be generally available, with entries ranging from the end of September this year to (for the most pessimistic) sometime next century. Enterprises typically wouldn't be picking up Windows 8 in high volume until 2014 if this were a normal cycle, but we have this little trend called the Consumerization of IT, which could make the Windows 95 wave that broke over enterprises in that launch year seem trivial by comparison.

It is far too early to assess anything more than the potential this wave may create, so let's look at where Windows 8 stands at present, and then set some milestones that it will need to pass to before we can determine whether the latest release will be anything that businesses need to consider this year.

No Windows 8 Wave This Year?

Some early indicators suggest that there may not be much of a wave this year. The Microsoft of 1995, which focused the entire company on the Windows 95 launch at the great expense of Office 95, no longer exists. While Microsoft is bigger and better-funded now, the launch effort will largely be driven by the Windows group, and Office appears to be on a different cycle. That group tended to hedge its bets with Windows Vista, which contributed to that offering's lackluster launch.

Additionally, with Windows 8 Microsoft is showcasing the Metro interface, which was introduced with Windows Phone 7 and massively under marketed, helping to take the company's market share from the 20 percent range to the low single digits. Now, while the interface may test as easier to navigate than either Google or iOS, and it is certainly newer, the limited marketing and hardware support have translated into chilly sales.

In short, instead of plowing the field for Windows 8, the lackluster embrace of Windows Phone 7 gives the impression that the market rejected this new interface, and that perception could have the same result as a real rejection. Meanwhile, competing offerings from Apple and Google have been strengthening significantly over the last few months, and once positions are taken, much as Windows Phone 7 demonstrated, getting people to invest in something new may be very difficult.

As an added drag, Windows 7 is still in deployment in companies, and users in the midst of learning one new product will likely resist learning another.

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