Zuckerberg's Goal of Connecting 5B People Could Take 20 Years
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg's plan to connect five billion people to the Internet is feasible, analysts said today. But it it could take 20 years to complete.
Wed, August 21, 2013
Computerworld — Mark Zuckerberg may want to connect another five billion people to the Internet, but industry analysts say effort is fraught with technology problems, as well as political and cultural issues, and would take years to roll out.
Zuckerberg, the co-founder and CEO of Facebook, announced early Wednesday morning that he is working with a group of technology companies to try to speed the delivery of Internet access to the two-thirds of the world not yet connected.
The team, which includes Ericsson, MediaTek, Nokia, Opera, Qualcomm and Samsung, is launching a project called internet.org with the goal of making Internet access available to some five billion people around the world.
Facebook, however, has not said how long it would take to connect that many people. Nor has it laid out any specific projects that are underway.
Facebook, the largest social network in the world, did say that the initiative will focus on developing technologies like cheaper, higher-quality smartphones that will make mobile connectivity more affordable, while also investing in tools, such as enhanced network capabilities and data compression, that greatly reduce the amount of data required to use most apps and websites.
Dan Olds, an analyst with The Gabriel Consulting Group, said the initiative will face significant challenges; he doesn't see it working for another 10 to 20 years.
"I think it can be done, but this is definitely a big goal," he added. "It will take quite a while and it will take a big investment. They'll have to deal with infrastructure issues, politics and cultural issues. There are a lot more issues than technical issues. It's these other issues that may be more daunting."
Ezra Gottheil, an analyst with Technology Business Resources, said he thinks it will take a solid 10 years to bring access to sometimes remote or impoverished areas that may be in the midst of political upheaval.
"Yes, it can be done, but not too quickly," said Gottheil. "The client hardware and software have to be built. The network stuff has to be built out. The subsidization business has to be negotiated and initiated. And they have to start signing up five billion people. That's a long line."
He added that the Internet's biggest profit makers, like Facebook, Google and Amazon.com, may need to pitch in to pay for widening global connectivity.
"The big barrier is that the next five billion can't afford higher communication costs," said Gottheil. "Businesses on the Web all benefit from this connectivity. They'll have to subsidize it to make this work."