HTC's First Net Loss in a Decade Could Spell its Collapse in Two Years
HTC's net loss of $101 million for the third quarter as reported Thursday might not sound all that traumatic, but in today's fiercely competitive smartphone market it could signal the beginning of the end for the phone maker.
Fri, October 04, 2013
Computerworld — HTC's net loss of $101 million for the third quarter as reported Thursday might not sound all that traumatic, but in today's fiercely competitive smartphone market it could signal the beginning of the end for the phone maker.
Despite producing a fleet of superior smartphones such as the HTC One launched in April, the Taiwanese handset maker has suffered from marketing and brand recognition woes. Even the stylish and powerful HTC One hasn't sold as well as expected, partly because its rollout was delayed earlier in the year due to technical problems.
The $101 million loss for the quarter ending Sept. 30 marked the first such loss since HTC went public in 2002. That low-water mark could spell disaster.
"Once a company begins to generate negative operating margins from phone sales, that phone business never recovers," said Horace Dediu, an analyst at Asymco in a blog on Friday.
Dediu's perspective is not just his opinion, but is based on tracking the decline of other smartphone makers, including Nokia and BlackBerry. Both companies are in the process of being sold: Nokia to Microsoft and BlackBerry to Fairfax Financial Holdings.
After a smartphone maker hits a rough spot with a negative quarter, Dediu said it becomes a question of how long it will suffer in a "post-traumatic" period before being sold, dissolved or merged. Both Nokia and BlackBerry had about two years in "post-trauma" before their sales to other companies were initiated, while the trauma clock has recently started for HTC.
"The implication [is] that HTC will change ownership or control no later than mid-2015," Dediu said. LG Electronics could be considered an exception to the pattern, having suffered a loss four years ago and yet it still remains in the phone business and seems to be recovering.
But LG benefits by offsetting phone losses with cash from other businesses it holds, while BlackBerry and Nokia (and others) have derived most of their sales from phones.
The decline of a smartphone company after a financial quarter with a loss is unusual, when compared with traditional industries, because the smartphone industry is so dynamic and cutthroat. Samsung dominates in sales, followed closely by Apple. For sure, in some traditional industries like automobiles, a company can regain success, even after a bankruptcy.
Not so in smartphones.
"The end is closing in on [wireless handset] vendors that don't have other high-revenue generating businesses that can help them persevere over the long term in handsets," said Kevin Burden, an analyst at Strategy Analytics. As with other technology segments, "having the best technology or the best product has rarely been a guarantee for success," he said.