As the Digital Revolution Kills Jobs, Social Unrest Will Rise
Gartner is forecasting some major changes in technology, especially in areas like 3D printing, machine learning and voice recognition. They are all powerful trends that will reduce the need for workers, and, as a consequence, bring social unrest, the analyst firm said.
Mon, October 07, 2013
Computerworld — Gartner is forecasting some major changes in technology, especially in areas like 3D printing, machine learning and voice recognition. They are all powerful trends that will reduce the need for workers, and, as a consequence, bring social unrest, the analyst firm said.
In the industrial revolution -- and revolutions since -- there was an invigoration of jobs. For instance, assembly lines for cars led to a vast infrastructure that could support mass production giving rise to everything from car dealers to road building and utility expansion into new suburban areas.
But the digital revolution is not following the same path, said Daryl Plummer, a Gartner analyst at the research firm's Symposium ITxpo here. "What we're seeing is a decline in the overall number of people required to do a job," he said.
Plummer points to a company like Kodak, which once employed 130,000, versus Instagram's 13. Gartner sees social unrest movements, similar to Occupy Wall Street, emerging again by 2014. That's prediction No. 1.
"Occupy-type Wall Street movements are going to grow," he said during his presentation of the "Top 10 Strategic Predictions." Plummer looked at trends in time frames over the next 10 years.
One attendee who agreed with the prediction that digitization and automation will cost jobs was Tom Seitzberg, director of international IT operations for Genomic Health in San Francisco.
"Ultimately, every society lives from the backbone from a strong middle class," said Seitzberg. "If you get just a top level, a small amount of very rich people and a very large piece of very poor people, it leads to social unrest."
Seitzberg said it's important to see "how you can also make sure that the people are actually benefiting from it."
Here are the remaining nine predictions from Gartner:
1. By 2016, the 3D printing of tissues and organs, called bioprinting, will cause a global debate about regulating the technology or banning it. Bioprinting is just one aspect of 3-D, but it illustrates, dramatically, the potential of this technology. "If you are an enterprise, you have got to start preparing your people for the notion that 3-D printing can go a long way," said Plummer. "If you start printing products, distribution systems change; the software for them changes, where the work is done changes."
2. By 2018, 3D printing will result in the loss of at least $100 billion a year in intellectual property globally. This could be particularly hard on a small business. "It's now easy to steal an entire business," said Plummer.