How Online Clues Located North Korea's Missile-launcher Factories
A few seconds of video, literature, a couple of memoirs and Google Earth helped locate a secret North Korean military plant
Mon, February 10, 2014
IDG News Service (San Francisco Bureau) — It's the stuff of spy thrillers. From a few seconds of video, a handful of images and some satellite pictures, a team of researchers has been able to pinpoint two factories deep inside North Korea where the country assembles its mobile missile launchers.
But what's perhaps more remarkable is that they did it without any of the classified tools of the intelligence trade: The factories were located by tying together information that was already freely available on the Internet.
This is the world of open-source intelligence.
Researchers at companies, governments and institutions are increasingly harnessing freely available information to find secrets that might have remained hidden in the past. It's not so much that the information is new, although there is much more of it now. It's that it's now available to anyone with an Internet connection.
"Everything that we did, you could have done 50 years ago, but it would have been really, really difficult," said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
The North Korean quest has its roots in a parade through Pyongyang on April 15, 2012, held to commemorate the birthday of the country's founder, Kim Il Sung. A couple of decades ago, footage broadcast on state TV might have gone to a few government analysts, but now there's YouTube and a network of overseas North Korean cheerleaders eager to upload it.
At this parade, one thing had analysts buzzing: six mobile launchers carrying KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Bloggers in China quickly noted the similarities between the trucks and those used by the Chinese military, right down to the shape of the windows and the grille pattern. A brochure for the trucks was quickly circulating online.
Chinese officials denied exporting the launchers to North Korea -- a serious violation of United Nations sanctions -- but later admitted that manufacturer Wanshan Special Vehicle had exported the truck chassis for "civilian use." Paperwork from the North Koreans claimed the trucks were needed for forestry work and the Chinese said the North Koreans must have assembled the launcher later.
But, were they telling the truth?
"We started poking around," said Lewis, speaking in Monterey, California, on Thursday.
Again, North Korean video on YouTube provided a clue.
A 2013 propaganda film, "Kim Jong Il's efforts to defend the country," contains four clips totaling 13 seconds that showed Kim Jong Il inside a factory alongside several missile launch vehicles.