Without meaning to be the toastmaster for the economic revival — I’d settle for being considered the new, more masculine Cassandra — there is yet more evidence to stack on the previous pile to suggest some sort of bouncebackability in the air.
As with all long illnesses there is always a risk of a nasty case of the double dips of course, but it’s fair to say that the patient is back on his feet for now and even taking a little chicken soup.
Item: Recruitment site The IT Job Board reports a 16 percent quarter on quarter increase in jobs available. IT management roles are among those cited as heading in a particularly northward direction and my own straw poll research backs this up. In a recent email-around of CIO contacts about one in 15 said they were in the process of changing employers. Word-of-moth from other recruiters also suggests more confidence.
Item: A recent Deloitte survey of 40 FTSE 100 CFOs which found that appetite for financial risk is higher than at any point since early 2008. More than four in five of those polled expect “sluggish but sustained revival”.
That’s all very well in its circumstantial way, but when it comes to the economy I prefer to trust eyes and ears rather than ‘expert’ prognostications or market research. Everything I’ve seen suggests that most businesses don’t learn a great deal from previous economic events but sail with a tide that sweeps us, uncomplaining until too late, from boom to bust. Everyone I meet seems to have a new glimmer about what the rest of the year (and even more next year) holds. We’re gathering rosebuds while we may or, to paraphrase Jay Gatsby: “So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the future”.