It is always interesting at this point in the year to take a look back twelve months at what was predicted to happen this year and how much of it actually did. You can cut out all the vendor predictions (they will all predict the rise of their own tech) and anything from anyone whose profile has the words guru, visionary or evangelist in it. That makes the job far more manageable. Last year it was all about wearables, drones and smart cities. There is no question all of these featured \u2013 at differing levels of maturity.\nThis year I will (as usual) add my own voice to those adding their two pennies worth. I also have a few thoughts about things I really don\u2019t expect to see \u2013 at least not yet:\n1.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Digital disruption goes up a level in the businessUp until this point digital tech and digital platforms have been disrupting the way businesses operate but now we are starting to see them disrupting business itself. What do I mean by this? I have written more than once about the idea that software is eating the world and that tech is now the driving force behind the businesses being created rather than the other way round. Gartner has even gone as far as to predict that we will start to see businesses essentially being created by machines. (https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/gilpress\/2014\/10\/09\/gartner-predicts-top-trends-for-technology-it-organizations-and-consumers-for-2015-and-beyond\/).\u00a0 If you are in business today this trend may be the biggest threat to your future. When you look at the speed with which companies like Uber and AirBnB have impacted the travel industry it is quite terrifying. If that kind of disruption hasn\u2019t been felt in your industry then chances are you are next!\n2.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0From new products to new experiencesThe shift from product innovation to experience innovation is something that I think has been happening gradually over the last three years but this year I think it will become the biggest driver within companies across industry sectors fuelled by customer expectations and the analysis of customer data within business and IT. That is not to say that there won\u2019t be new products \u2013 there will always be new products \u2013 but there has been a major change in the way that organisations approach the idea of new products and how to develop the total experience from initial introduction through to on-going usage. These days many organisations, including those in traditionally quite conservative sectors (such as finance) consider investment in improving the customer experience as (if not more) important than product development. UX (user experience) design has become a critical piece of the innovation mix but it is also about the complete service design and companies realise that in a world awash with product it\u2019s the companies that deliver a good experience that customers stick with.\n3.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Smartphones will get smarter2015 is going to mark a major change in the way we use our smartphones. Up until this point they have been largely passive devices. We access them for information, connectivity and engagement. Now however, thanks to the rise of predictive analytics and technology that truly \u2018learns\u2019 smartphones will become far more proactive. Notifications might actually become useful (https:\/\/www.fastcompany.com\/3036084\/technovore\/your-smartphones-getting-smarter) and smartphones will become part personal PA (something Microsoft is already claiming their latest offering is) and part guide. I am looking forward to that gentle reminder from my phone that I have exceeded my recommended alcohol intake for the week\u2026\nSo for what it\u2019s worth those are my top three tech trends for this year. Now on to a few things that I personally am not going to get over excited about\u2026\n1.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0DronesI am quite sure that the drone will have its place. Perhaps the end is nigh for the postman (eventually) but I strongly suspect that the combination of air traffic control and the anti-terrorism police will put some pretty firm constraints on how, when and why they are used at least for the foreseeable future.\n2.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Demise of traditional enterprise technologyI am a pretty strong advocate of businesses taking a non-traditional approach to tech but those that are proclaiming the end for the traditional enterprise tech company are probably underestimating their ability to reinvent themselves (think Microsoft and Cisco) and over estimating the desire for change within the enterprise. Frankly I wish corporate IT leaders were a little braver but, although the movement for change is growing, I am pretty sure the Oracles, SAPs and EMCs of this world are going to survive the next 12 months.\n3.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Healthcare techThe wearables hype revolution is upon us but the idea that we are all mad keen on the idea of covering ourselves in gadgets constantly telling us how unhealthy we are is quite frankly ridiculous. Ignorance is bliss as far as I am concerned. Healthcare wearables just report different metrics with no interpretation, no advice. The adoption will take off when devices use data streams to create more valuable actionable insights, eg why am I not sleeping well and waking during the night?\u00a0 Drinking too much?\n4.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Wearable Technology2015 will not be the year of the wearables even if Apple finally ships the iWatch.\u00a0 This was evident at The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas in early January where I expected the transformation from prototypes to a quantifiable consumer category filled with actual working products.\u00a0 Instead there were just more companies with a lot of different ideas about what it would take to make a breakout wearable.\u00a0 It may take Apple to once again create the momentum in the category with a successful product but the apps will not yet provide compelling consumer experiences.