One expert is right.\u00a0One expert is wrong.\nSwimsuit or raincoat?\nHow accurate are predictions? Every day we have plans. Even if that plan is to do nothing. At some point understanding the weather becomes a factor in the decision of what to do, where to go or what to wear. A product manager at Minitab answered a question we have wondered about. How accurate are those weather forecasters?\u201d\nThere are three main forecast periods: 10-day, five-day and next-day. The experiment recorded 10-day, five-day, and next-day weather forecasts. Over 30 days, the rolling forecast and the actual weather was recorded. Some days were more accurate than others. Not surprising, the 10-day forecast was less accurate than the five-day forecast, and the five-day was less accurate than the next-day forecast.\nAs the prediction date moved closer to the actual date, less variability was observed in the prediction. Usually, we\u2019re talking about the standard deviation of defects, whether in the technological or manufacturer space. However, in our\u00a0case, we\u2019re talking about the extent which one weather forecaster would agree with another. Do experts mostly agree or mostly disagree? A low standard deviation isn\u2019t always good, and a high isn't always bad. Standard deviation is a factor of the observation data spread. In our case, how close one weather forecaster is to another in their predictions to the actual forecast.\nThe standard deviations varied based on the forecast period. The 10-day forecast had a standard deviation of 6.2 degrees, with the high temp off as much as 8 degrees and the low temp off by as much as 17 degrees. The standard deviations of the five-days (4.3 degrees) and the next-days (2.1 degrees) were less pronounced.\n Minitab \nDoes any of this even matter? What if we weren\u2019t talking about weather forecasters? What if we were talking about experts predicting the lack of impact of blockchain on business or experts predicting the impact of new innovative technologies? Think about the business impact of blockchain in 10 years, five years and one year.\nBrilliant innovations or dreadful embarrassments?\nIt depends on which expert you ask. Television, radio, telephone, transportation, computers, space exploration\u00a0and medicine are riddled with renowned experts who offered horrible predictions. The most humorous were the most pessimistic. Keep that in mind as experts offer ridiculously pessimistic outlooks on the impact of blockchain technologies on the business, the economy, and the world.\nTelevision\n\nTelevision won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.\n\u2013 Darryl F. Zanuck, Head of 20th Century-Fox, 1946.\n\n20th Century-Fox, started in 1949 with shows on ABC and CBS, later evolving into the Fox Television Network.\nRadio\n\nRadio has no future.\n\u2013 Lord Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist, ca. 1897\n\nAs of Oct. 22, 2016, the market capitalization of Sirius XM Holdings was $20.2 billion.\nTelephone\n\nThis 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a practical form of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.\n\u2013 Western Union internal memo, 1878\n\nVerizon, the largest player in the wireless market wireless, saw operating income margin at 32.7% for FY 2015 on revenues of $131.6 billion - not bad for a market that is of "no value."\nTransportation\n\nWhat can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?\n\u2013 The Quarterly Review, England, 1825\n\nYahoo Finance reports that the market capitalization of the railway industry at $317,948 billion in 2016.\nComputers\n\n"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."\n\u2013 Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977\n\nThe personal computer industry is about $24 billion, not bad considering that smartphones have shifted the PC market. Adding smartphones (iPhone, Android) dramatically raises this growth estimates. Global revenue from smartphones exceeded $400.7 billion in 2015.\nSpace exploration\n\nThere is no hope for the fanciful idea of reaching the moon because of insurmountable barriers to escaping the Earth's gravity.\n\u2013 Dr. Forest Ray Moulton, University of\u00a0Chicago astronomer, 1932\n\nIn 1959, the Soviet Union made the first spacecraft landings on the lunar surface with Luna 2 and Luna 3. The United States reached the moon in 1964 and 1965 with Ranger 7 and Ranger 8.\nMedicine\n\n\u2018The abdomen, the chest and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon.\u2019\n\u2013 Sir John Eric Ericson, Surgeon to Queen Victoria, 1873\n\nIn 1967, a South African physician, Dr. Christiaan Barnard, performed the world's first human-to-human heart transplant at Groote Schuur Hospital, Cape Town.\nWhat did each of these individuals have in common? They all were among the most renowned industry experts of their times, and each offered horrible advice.\u00a0It\u2019s comical to think about big innovations ignored by experts occurring 100 or 200 years ago.\nWhat are the innovations in experimentation today that experts have dismissed? Telsa? Airbnb?\u00a0Next-generation sequencing (NGS)?\u00a0VR headsets (sports, shopping, therapy)? Blockchain?