Michael Friedenberg's 10 Predictions for '07

1. CIO turnover rises as CEOs demand that CIOs drive innovation. CIOs will move from a cost-containment mind-set to a growth and revenue-generation one, acquiring the relevant business skills PDQ.

2. The 80 percent of the IT budget that now goes to keeping the lights on will decrease as the technologies to enable CIOs to kill off their legacy systems mature.

3. SOA does not live up to the hype. Most of the talk I hear at the CIO level is that while service-oriented architecture is gaining acceptance, it’s still more a slogan than a true framework that (right now, at least) will allow IT to be more efficient and productive.

4. Customer loyalty and satisfaction is stamped on your forehead. The new MBO will be to increase the level of interaction with customers via the Web.

5. "Hello, I’m Joe, the CMO." As Web 2.0 takes hold, collecting, storing and analyzing customer data will be key for CMOs, and the only way they can do that is with the CIO’s help. In fact, isn’t that the CMO knocking on your door right now?

6. Identity theft reaches epic proportions, and CIOs increasingly will be held responsible for ensuring that the integrity of the enterprise is not breached and that customer trust is maintained.

7. Windows versus open source gets boring. Does it always have to be a battle? This year, the vendors, the press and CIOs all catch up to the fact that this is not an either-or, all-or-nothing proposition. Neither is going away. Live with it.

8. Power becomes the CIO’s problem. I’m not speaking of control or influence but energy. The enterprise’s energy costs will begin to become a major concern for you, and they will be figured into your overall IT budget.

9. Talent rules. The best organizations have the best people. CIOs will succeed only if they find, train, lead and inspire their teams. And retain them.

10. CIOs finally become zebras. Zebras are not black animals with white stripes or white animals with black stripes. Zebras are zebras. CIOs are not businesspeople with technology stripes or technologists with business stripes. CIOs are CIOs…business technology leaders.

I hope 2007 is a good year for you. Try to enjoy the ride.

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