Most business books have one big idea that the author draws out for 200 pages. Usually the idea can be explained in a review, and the book itself, colored with vague examples, is best to skim.Pip Coburn’s The Change Function: Why Some Technologies Take Off and Others Crash and Burn is different. Yes, he has a big idea—that you can predict which technologies will succeed or fail by applying a simple formula—and this idea is covered in the first 10 pages. (And yes, you’ll understand the idea by the end of this review.) But what sets this book apart from so many others is that the rest of it is worth reading. Coburn fills his book with detailed case studies, gleaned from his years as managing director of the technology group at UBS Investment Research, that illustrate his formula. And thanks to the detail, the cases actually teach you something. The core of Coburn’s formula is that a new technology should be widely adopted only if it meets two criteria. First, it has to address a problem, and second, that problem has to be more painful than the perceived pain of adopting the new technology. “We need to balance our wonderment at technology’s role in creating nirvana with a skepticism about business models,” writes Coburn, now head of his own investment company, Coburn Ventures. The picture-phone, for example, which AT&T pushed from the 1960s to the 1980s, failed because the need to see the person you’re talking to isn’t a big enough problem to justify buying and learning how to use an expensive new phone system.That’s a lesson that should hit home for CIOs. Applying Coburn’s insight, CIOs should force IT projects through a gauntlet of questions, asking not only if a particular technology will solve a problem but also whether that problem is one users are desperate enough to have them do something about. Related content feature 4 remedies to avoid cloud app migration headaches The compelling benefits of using proprietary cloud-native services come at a price: vendor lock-in. Here are ways CIOs can effectively plan without getting stuck. By Robert Mitchell Nov 29, 2023 9 mins CIO Managed Service Providers Managed IT Services case study Steps Gerresheimer takes to transform its IT CIO Zafer Nalbant explains what the medical packaging manufacturer does to modernize its IT through AI, automation, and hybrid cloud. By Jens Dose Nov 29, 2023 6 mins CIO SAP ServiceNow feature Per Scholas redefines IT hiring by diversifying the IT talent pipeline What started as a technology reclamation nonprofit has since transformed into a robust, tuition-free training program that seeks to redefine how companies fill tech skills gaps with rising talent. By Sarah K. White Nov 29, 2023 11 mins Diversity and Inclusion Diversity and Inclusion Hiring news Saudi Arabia will host the World Expo 2030 in Riyadh By Andrea Benito Nov 28, 2023 4 mins Podcasts Videos Resources Events SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER From our editors straight to your inbox Get started by entering your email address below. Please enter a valid email address Subscribe