Much has been made about the fact that businesses likely won’t be in a hurry to upgrade to Windows Vista. But a report by Forrester Research suggests consumers won’t stampede to purchase the new OS either.Forrester analyst Ted Schadler said that customer households will adopt Vista much in the same way that they adopted Windows XP. This goes against the projections Microsoft has made that Vista will be adopted two times faster than any other Windows client OS.“Call us cautious, but we believe that most consumers will trod the path they’ve been on for years: They buy computers when the old ones break, when the prices come down far enough, or when a lifestyle event triggers the purchase,” he wrote in the report. “And that means the best predictor of Windows Vista adoption is Windows XP.”It took more than four years for Windows XP to reach the majority of the PC install base, and it likely will take Vista the same amount of time, Schadler posits in the report, titled “A Forecast of Windows Consumer Adoption.” Currently about 76 percent of PC-owning U.S. households are running a PC with some version of Windows XP. While he said that Windows Vista does have certain improvements in security and user interface, none of those “feels disruptive enough to trigger early purchases,” he wrote.“Therefore, the Windows Vista adoption pattern will look similar to the Windows XP adoption pattern,” Schadler wrote. In his report, Schadler predicted that about 12 million households will own Vista in 2007. This will grow to 73 million households by 2011. To improve this rate of adoption of Vista, the report suggests that hardware vendors work with Microsoft to ensure that any PC purchased in the last quarter of the year be ready to run Windows Vista. Schadler also suggested in the report that any customer willing to purchase a copy of Windows XP in December 2006 be offered a free upgrade to Windows Vista on Jan. 30, when the OS will be generally available. Some of Microsoft’s hardware partners are offering free coupons for upgrades, but some coupons may require a fee, albeit a discounted one.“Why should a consumer suffer just because the industry missed a shipping deadline?” Schadler wrote.Forrester also suggests that Microsoft should ensure there are new applications for Vista that will provide substantial value-add and wow consumers if it wants them to upgrade more quickly.Windows Vista was released to manufacturers on Wednesday, and will be available to business customers on Nov. 30. Microsoft is hosting a launch event that day in New York to mark not only Vista’s release, but also the release of Office 2007 and Exchange Server 2007. -Elizabeth Montalbano, IDG News Service (New York Bureau)Related Links: Microsoft Vista Consumer Release Set for Jan. 30 Microsoft Vista to Get VoIP Simultaneous Launch of Vista and Office 2007 Planned Microsoft Offers Windows Vista Upgrade CouponsThis article is posted on our Microsoft Informer page. For more news on the Redmond, Wash.-based powerhouse, keep checking in.Check out our CIO News Alerts and Tech Informer pages for more updated news coverage. Related content BrandPost How Infosys and Tennis Australia are harnessing technology for good By Veronica Lew Mar 26, 2023 6 mins Infosys BrandPost Retail innovation playbook: Fast, economical transformation on Microsoft Cloud For retailers, tight integration of data and systems is the antidote to a challenging economy. By Tata Consultancy Services Mar 24, 2023 3 mins Retail Industry Digital Transformation BrandPost How retailers are empowering business transformation with TCS and Microsoft Cloud AI-powered omnichannel integration and a strong, secure digital core lets retailers innovate across four primary areas while staying compliant, maintaining security and preventing fraud. By Tata Consultancy Services Mar 24, 2023 4 mins Retail Industry Cloud Computing BrandPost How to Build ROI from Cloud Migration This whitepaper and webcast can help you calculate the ROI and create a business case for modernizing your legacy applications to the Microsoft Cloud. By Tata Consultancy Services Mar 24, 2023 1 min Retail Industry Cloud Computing Podcasts Videos Resources Events SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER From our editors straight to your inbox Get started by entering your email address below. Please enter a valid email address Subscribe