“I THINK THERE IS A WORLD market for maybe five computers.” So said Thomas Watson Sr. forecasting future sales for International Business Machines large-scale computers in 1943.
OK, the guy was off by a few hundred million. But the world of technology remains fascinated by the future. What’s hot? What’s not? Wall Street gurus make millions trying to predict it. What if you were able to peer into the future of technology spending for the next 12 months and know what the buying trends are for the total market and your specific industry? Would that interest you?
CIO magazine and Deutsche Bank Securities think so. Since June 2000, we have been quietly building an influential body named the CIO Leading Indicator Group. The goal of the group is simple: Predict technology buying trends for the next 12 months. This is a topic the press writes about as the driving force in the “new” new economy. With nine pretests completed based on more than 1,000 responses, we are confident our index?the Technology Growth Index (TGI)?is an accurate predictor of future technology spending trends.
I can hear all the readers of this column asking, “Sounds interesting, but what do I have to do and what do I get out of it?” Fair questions. Membership in the CIO Leading Indicator Group is limited to either CIOs or the senior-most IT executives at their companies. And there’s only one membership responsibility: monthly completion of a nonobtrusive survey that takes at most five minutes to complete. The survey will always be e-mailed midmonth, and the results will be released on the first of every month. All data is gathered and reported in total. No specific companies will be mentioned.
Membership privileges will include the opportunity to get detailed, drill-down data by total and specific industry. This will be of enormous value in helping you negotiate budget processes with your other “O” colleagues and get an even better deal from a vendor if the data shows the demand curve is slackening. In addition, membership will include a monthly conference call explaining survey data hosted by Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist of Deutsche Bank Securities, and myself or Abbie Lundberg, editor in chief of CIO. Lastly, CIO and Deutsche Bank Securities also plan to host a private full-day analyst briefing session once a year in New York City, open solely to the members of the prestigious CIO Leading Indicator Group. Plans are also being completed to extend membership in the group to senior technology executives around the world.
Let’s look into the future together. To join, e-mail me (gbeach@cio.com) or Bridget Cammarata (bridgetc@cxo.com), CXO Media’s research director.
