Corporate Tax Reform? Don’t Hold Your Breath

Nearly half of all CFOs and other top executives (48%) don’t expect reforms in the corporate tax rate structure until 2013 or later. That’s according to a recent survey of 1,400 company CFOs, tax directors, and members of corporate audit committees or boards in general. And when reforms are arranged in the future, the survey suggests, they will be small reductions of between one and five points from the current 35% rate.

The current 35% corporate tax rate is the sixth-highest in the world.

Conducted in March by accounting firm KPMG’s Tax Governance Institute, the survey records skepticism among 34% of those asked about whether any tax-rate reduction would be passed without offsets that would reduce or eliminate their benefit to companies. The three areas where this one-third of executives expected to see negative changes are domestic manufacturing deduction, accelerated depreciation, and the use of foreign tax credits.

Of course, skepticism about the federal government’s strategy in corporate tax reform is hardly new — and applies to all the various approaches to taxation presented in current budget proposals.

But the KPMG tax-governance survey seems to suggest there is general agreement on certain points. “As many of the survey respondents believe, it is our view that major tax reform will not happen quickly,” says Hank Gutman, KPMG tax principal and director of the Tax Governance Institute, in a news release. “If rates are in fact lowered and preferences reduced or eliminated, we will see an outcome with winners and losers,” adds Gutman, also a former chief of staff of the U.S. Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation. “This will occur because the use of preferences is not uniform across all businesses. Companies need to stay nimble and ensure they are in a position to respond to what develops.”

Gutman observes that today’s tax issues are more complex, and exist in different economic and economic conditions, compared to when the Tax Reform Act of 1986 was adopted. “Four major variables are expected to drive the current debate,” he says, listing “the government’s fiscal condition, the substantive reform proposals, the economic effects of the proposals, and the politics of enacting legislation.”

In breaking down the executives forecasting only small reductions in the tax rate, 29% predict that it will likely decline to between 32% and 34%, while another 29% peg the possible new rate at 30% or 31%.

Asked if possible rate reductions would be offset by reducing or eliminating the benefit of certain tax provisions, 34% said they expect that the domestic manufacturing deduction, accelerated depreciation, and the use of foreign tax credits would all be reduced or eliminated. There were 15% who expect that only the domestic manufacturing deduction and accelerated depreciation would provide the offset.

The survey also revealed that 63% didn’t plan to be actively involved in efforts to shape the outcome of the corporate tax debate. While 19% said they would be active, that broke down to 11% being involved through a trade group, 10% being involved individually, and 9% expecting involvement to reflect a combination of a legislative consultant, a trade association, and personal efforts.

The executive survey by KPMG’s Tax Governance Institute was connected with a webcast titled “The Realities of Achieving Corporate Tax Reform.”