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The Betting Man’s Guide to Tech’s Sure Things

What's more likely: You find reliable Wi-Fi at a conference or the real Kim Kardashian follows you on Twitter? We break down the odds of your everyday tech life, from the long shots to the sure bets.
By Thomas Wailgum
CIO

Wi-Fi Fail at Conferences

At an IT conference, the odds that a conference hall or hotel’s wireless network will go down: Even. (Just ask Steve Jobs about his problematic WWDC 2010 presentation.)

Synergistic Relations

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Chances that a tech vendor CEO will say the word “synergy” when announcing a new partnership: 1 in 2. (Odds that she thinks it’ll actually save her company: 1 in 900.)

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An Evil Search-Engine Company?

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During the next 20 years, the odds that Google will actually do some evil stuff: 1 in 2.

The Rich Get Richer

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This year, the odds that Larry Ellison will add another billion to his net worth: 1 in 4. (That he will actually notice: 1 in 15,000.)

She Ain’t Into You

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Chances that that’s the real “Kim Kardashian” following you on Twitter: 1 in 1,000,000. Chances that you just got a virus by following her back: Even.

Enter at Your Own Risk

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Odds that your company’s ERP upgrade will come in on time and on budget, and all business stakeholders will be pleased with the new functionality: 1 in 757,000. (Odds that the “f” word—”fail”—will be associated with the project: 1 in 3.)

Don’t Bother Calling

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The odds that Apple’s public relations department will return a journalist’s call or e-mail inquiry: 1 in 622,000,000. (If you’re the New York Times’ David Pogue: 1 in 3.)

Sleeping Beauties

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The odds that the PowerPoint presentation that your CFO is about to deliver will have fewer than 40 slides: 1 in 400. (Odds you’ll fall asleep during: 1 in 2.)

Who Cares About Cell Phones, Anyway?

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Odds that Microsoft’s $500 million investment in Windows 7 mobile will topple entrenched competition: 1 in 50,000. (Chances that Microsoft execs kick themselves daily for not buying RIM a long time ago: 1 in 3.)

(Really) Early Retirement

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A 41-year-old CIO at a Fortune 1000 suddenly “retires” while rumors swirl about a major IT meltdown. Odds that he’s actually “retiring to spend more time with family and/or on the golf course” (1 in 10,000); that he’ll ever work again in IT (1 in 3); that he’s secretly ecstatic to be free from “the grind” (Even).

Lost..and Found?

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Odds that your lost BlackBerry/iPhone/Droid will be returned to you—unused and unharmed—by a Good Samaritan: 1 in 7. (Odds that you wish you had remembered to turn on password security: Even.)

It’s Almost Beyond Description!

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Odds that a tech press release announcing a new product will use the terms “industry leading,” “robust solution” and/or “cloud-ready”: Even. (That anyone will read the entire release: 1 in 750,000.)